The Tariff Show

We have recently indicated that the market had reached short term highs, and it is apparent now that the market is starting to price in a full out trade war.  This is a difficult task in general, as the cost of the tariffs are difficult to price into stocks. However, what is clear is that companies affected by the tariffs are warning Wall Street in their comments during earnings calls.  In the short term we will see volatility, and that should continue for a while.  We do not see a major downturn at this time, and just to put things into perspective: the S&P 500 is up close to 13% for the year as of this writing.  This period may be a bit bumpy but it is not a bear market.

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