Author Archives: Granite Group

Bloomberg Radio

Listen now to Granite Group’s take on what to expect going forward.

Please click at 25:20 minutes to hear Lyle’s latest.

Call your advisor for help. No advisor? Call 203-210-7814

Bloomberg Radio


Click here  (or use the link below) to listen to Lyle Himebaugh…he starts at 25:30

Bloomberg Radio

Listen to Granite Group’s Lyle Himebaugh’s opinion on the markets looking forward!

Click here to listen to Lyle’s most recent Bloomberg interview.

Which sectors will combat Economic Headwinds

Click the link below to listen to the latest interview with Lyle Himebaugh on Bloomberg. If you would like your employees to have real time advice on their 401k accounts, please call Lyle Himebaugh at 203-210-7814

The markets look forward, not backward.

While the inflation numbers were disappointing this morning, it is important to remember that it is a lagging indicator.

Why is this important? Because lagging indicators report what has happened not what will happen. However, the inflation print this AM instills fear in investors. That fear is predicated on what the Fed will do in the July meeting which scares market participants.  The bond markets have already taken into account the Fed action of a 75bps increase. Other important lagging metrics are unemployment, hourly earnings, jobless claims, etc… but again, these are in the past.

Since markets look forward 6-12 months, it is more important to access future indicators. Stay focused on forward looking indicators like consumer confidence, purchasing managers index (PMI) and of course forward-looking corporate earnings. As of this writing, corporate earnings are looking to increase by about 7% in 2022. If there is a coming recession, it would be the first time the US recessed without unemployment increasing.  The current job market shows that we have more jobs available than people to fill them. The economy will indeed slow, but we believe the US will not enter a recession at this time. We also have received through channel checks that supply chain issues should be resolved in the first half of 2023.

Valuations have come down to normal levels. Any further deterioration in the market valuation down to the June 17th low would be a good place to dip a toe in the water.

To learn more about family office, endowment , pensions or retirement plans , please call Lyle Himebaugh at 203-210-7814

Not a time to sell

At the end of last year, we imparted our beliefs that the markets were overvalued and needed a pullback to get to a more reasonable market valuation. As an aside, pullbacks are very a healthy and normal process that we see in markets quite often.

Unfortunately, some exogenous global events added fuel to the fire.  With the unexpected re-lockdown of China (a major supplier of goods to the world) the big sticker shock of inflation and the Russia/Ukraine war (wheat), you get a more emotional response (fear) to financial markets. Given the higher interest rates and the trajectory of the fed raising rates and over- valued stock valuations combined with outside geopolitical factors, the markets are now down more than expected.

After several weeks of downturns, stock valuations are back within a very normal range. We also believe the higher interest rate trajectory is already baked into the market. In addition we assume the China Lockdown and the worst of the Russian/Ukraine war are behind us. Given these factors and the current valuations, GGA believes the markets have 10% upside into the end of the year from today’s projected lower opening. Our target is based on historical fundamental analysis. At the moment, Wall Street has a much higher target.

If you would like to learn more how GGA can help your family, foundation, pension or learn a way to deliver a personal employee experience in your company’s 401k retirement plan. Call 203-210-7814.  

Russia and Ukraine

We normally do not comment on international affairs, but we feel it is important to give our thoughts on the possible Russia/Ukraine conflict. 

First off, we do not believe that the US will enter a war with Russia, even if Russia does invade or annex part of the Ukraine.  While there is an awful lot of jawboning coming from the Biden administration, there has been little to no physical activity with our troops and military that would signal an entrance to war.  Additionally, most of the rhetoric coming from the US is about sanctions and economic action against Russia, which is the most likely outcome if they decide to invade.

Russia has some strategic need to get direct access to its Naval base in Crimea, which is what the annexation of Crimea was about in the last skirmish.  While we do not know whether Putin will escalate, we do know that in the past, economic sanctions did not seem to really change the decisions coming from the Kremlin.  The US does not have many tools here to fight a battle for Ukraine as the country does not offer much in terms of strategic need for the US.      

The final point is: if Russia moves in, what will be the economic impact and how will that affect markets? The simple answer is, whatever effect it has will be temporary. In almost every major event/crisis, the immediate reaction is negative followed by a resumption.  We believe if there is a selloff, that would be a buying opportunity. However, there will be some impacts in the oil and gas world for some period of time. 


If talk of inflation is making you uncomfortable – consider a Hedge Fund of funds, here’s why…..

A new focus on rising interest rates will hamper rate sensitive bond mutual funds. (As rates rise, the value of the bond falls) If you have exposure to bond funds, and may be uncomfortable with the potential downside, there are other investments, at a similar lower risk profile, which could potentially have a better long-term return.

A better place to allocate might be a Hedge Fund of funds.  These types of funds are an actively managed blended fund consisting of multiple types of assets. These funds seek a total return from capital appreciation and income. The combination of assets is designed to produce a portfolio with much lower volatility than the major equity market indexes while providing a roughly 4%-7% annualized rate of return.

Feel free to contact us at 203-210-7814 if you would like to discuss your investment questions.

Great Companies In Cannabis

Click here to listen to Lyle’s latest interview on Bloomberg Radio.

Current Market Environment

With the recent volatility in the markets, Granite Group Advisors thought it would be prudent to share our thoughts on what is happening, and what you can do. While many of you may be interested in discussing the crazy happening in GameStop and Bitcoin etc.. we will focus on what we see going forward.

It is no secret that the equity markets are trading at records with lofty valuations. However, with the Federal Reserve continuing to provide liquidity, a new stimulus bill, keeping interest rates low, and other general government support, a case can be made that there will not be a 20% or greater market correction. Equity markets could experience a pullback of 10% or less which historically has been a part of norm.  

We believe once the country gets through covid and the economy opens back up to travel, vacation and other restrictions lifted, people will have a lot of savings to spend. This is why GGA is optimistic on the equity markets for this year.

It is important however to watch the 10 year treasury yield because the higher it goes in yield the less this thesis will play out.  As long as interest rates stay low things should go as expected.  There may be some exogenous events as well that can cause ripples which is an unknown at this time but this is what we see as of today. 

If you need or want any more clarification or just want to discuss this in more detail please do not hesitate to give us a call and set up some time to discuss your personal situation.  Thanks for your time and attention and we hope you all stay safe healthy and prosperous !!!

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