The banter of a trade war between the US and China has taken the stock market down again. As of this writing, the futures are down big. At this point the so called “trade war” is just talk, but when the dust settles we believe there will be a nominal impact to GDP for either country. In fact, negotiations may surprise investors with a positive outcome.
We would caution investors not to panic. The market is trading at approximately 15 times 2019 earnings which is not excessive. The long run average is around 15 times earnings. Even with slightly expected higher interest rates (10 year treasury), the market should be around 16 times earnings because of earnings growth.
We still see upside in the markets! Even though the markets are down on the year, Granite Group is sticking with mid to high single digit return for 2018. We also believe investors should have healthy exposure to Europe and Emerging markets.
Please feel free to call us with any questions.