From Capitulation to Complacency

Our August 24^th blog entitled “Capitulation” told a tale of how scared investors became on that day. The market traded right down to the historically average of 14 times 2016 earnings. Since that day, the market has roared 12%, which is way beyond what we thought was normal. Valuation cannot be ignored. Moving above the 2100 level would require the markets to sustain a 17 forward 2016 earnings multiple; which we think is too high. With the promise of a higher ten year treasury and slow growth, the complacency among investors gives us some concern. We would be cautious for the moment and wait for a better entry point.

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